Advisor to the KP Chief Minister on Finance Muzzammil Aslam, while addressing a press conference at Khyber Pakhtunkhwa House in Islamabad, said that on one hand the Shehbaz Sharif government is set to present its fifth consecutive budget, while on the other hand the country is facing historic levels of unemployment and inflation, and the economy remains stagnant. He said that no government in Pakistan’s history has presented five consecutive budgets. According to him, there is no good news in the preparations for the upcoming federal budget.
Muzzammil Aslam stated that, according to the government, the economic growth rate will reach 3.7 percent by the end of the current fiscal year, while the target for next year is 4 percent. He said that the extensive promotion of the “Uraan Pakistan” initiative had created the impression that the economy would witness significant growth, but nothing improved.
He added that the government has projected inflation at 8.2 percent for the next fiscal year. He questioned the government’s claim of 3.7 percent economic growth this year when major crops recorded growth of only 0.6 percent. He further pointed out that while the government claims livestock grew by 3.8 percent, it simultaneously reports fodder crops registering negative growth of 2.1 percent, which, according to him, reflects the credibility of the government’s growth claims.
Muzzammil Aslam said the government is highlighting only a few selected sectors to claim industrial growth. According to official figures, the automobile industry grew by 60 percent, auto transport equipment by 40 percent, furniture by 20 percent, and football manufacturing by 23 percent. However, electricity generation declined by 10 percent. He said the government also claims that small-scale industries are growing at 8.5 percent, but its own statistics do not match, raising questions about how economic growth can be achieved under such circumstances.
He further stated that the government claims the size of the economy has reached $453 billion, which should result in higher per capita income. However, he noted that data from the Planning Commission of Pakistan indicates the worst levels of unemployment and poverty in the last 21 years. He questioned how such economic expansion could coincide with worsening social indicators.
Muzzammil Aslam said that while increasing numbers of people are leaving the country in search of employment opportunities, the government claims to have created 1.8 million jobs. According to government figures, 1.1 million jobs were created in the services sector, 400,000 in industry, and 300,000 in agriculture. He argued that with major crops growing by only 0.6 percent and industries facing severe challenges, the government’s employment claims appear questionable. He added that the government is projecting the creation of another 2 million jobs next year.
He also criticized the government’s trade projections, calling them highly disappointing. According to him, the government has set an export target of $32.8 billion for next year, while Pakistan’s exports had already reached around $32 billion in 2022. He questioned how such a modest increase could support claims of strong economic growth and Government claims imports are projected to rise to $70 billions.
He further noted that the government has set a remittance target of $42 billion. He argued that when a country’s remittance target exceeds its export target, it reflects the weakness of economic growth and productive capacity.
Muzzammil Aslam said the government has announced a development budget of Rs1.126 trillion, while the total cost of the announced projects stands at Rs10 trillion. This means that only Rs1.126 trillion will be allocated against projects worth Rs10 trillion. Given the government’s own inflation estimate of 8.2 percent, he argued that many of these projects are likely to remain stagnant as rising costs will reduce the value of available funds.
He further stated that out of 786 federal development projects, only six belong to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, despite the province accounting for about 17 percent of Pakistan’s population. He warned that once these six projects are completed, there will be no federal PSDP project left for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The total value of these six projects is only Rs36 billion, meaning that out of Rs10 trillion worth of development projects nationwide, only Rs36 billion is allocated to the province.
Muzzammil Aslam added that the government has earmarked Rs264 billion for the National Highway Authority (NHA), covering a total of 94 projects. Of these, only 10 projects are for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and out of the Rs264 billion allocation, the province has been allocated only Rs8.5 billion.